HomeSkepticism

by Gene Mack

December, 2002
How many times have you been asked to explain cold reading? How well have you done? While most of us know what cold reading is and how it is done, it is not an easy thing to explain. And it is certainly not easy to explain it within the constraints that many who believe in psychics and mediumship want it explained in. There is a common misconception among those that don't understand cold reading that is some systematic, or formulaic, process that can be followed under all circumstances. The truth is, it is not a process, but more of a collection of skills, used independently or together, to achieve a desired result.

Another problem with an explanation of cold reading is the lack of real world examples. The question is often asked "Where can I see a cold reader work, to compare that to a psychic or medium?" While there are mentalists who do perform cold reading for entertainment purposes, they are not mainstream and well known. Using them for as an example is often useless. So what do you do?

Well, there is one other place you can find cold readers working ever day. As a matter of fact, most people have even engaged in this type of cold reading themselves, so it should be an easy example to digest and understand. Where is this place and who are these elusive cold readers? The place is any casino or poker room and the cold readers are poker players!

There are several key skills both poker players and cold readers have in common:

To understand the comparison, you must understand how a poker player uses these skills. The first skill is knowing the odds. For the purpose of clarity, the discussion will be framed in the popular poker game, Texas Hold'em, where each player receives two cards and five community cards are flipped up. Each player tries to make the best possible hand out of their two cards and the five cards on the board that all players see. A poker player has to understand the odds of the game, or he/she will lose a lot of money very fast. The first two cards are dealt and there is a betting round. If the player does not have two good cards right from the start, they should fold. The odds of them making a good hand out of a bad hand are remote and are not worth the risk. An example of a good hand would be a pair of Aces, or Ace-King. A bad hand would be anything lower than a Queen in your hand. If one player stays in with Ace-King and another stays in with a 3-7, the odd are very heavily in favor of the player with the Ace-King in their hand to win the money.

Throughout the game, the poker player must re-evaluate the odds. They must know that the possibility of an inside straight (i.e. holding 2,3,4,6 and hoping for a 5) is around 11-1 and not a very good bet. They must know when they have the best possible hand on the board. They must know when their hand has very little chance of winning. They must constantly calculate the odds of the given situation and change their course of action to fit those odds.

And they must also know when to take a calculated risk. It was shown above what the odds of an inside straight are and it was said this is not a very good bet. But it can be. Hand odds also have to be compared to pot odds. Pot odds is the ratio of what you have to bet, to what you will win. If you have to place a bet of $5 to win $50, the pot odds are 10-1. When the pot odds are higher than your hand odds, then it might be advisable to take the risk and stay in. If the player is looking for an inside straight and only had to bet $5 to win $100 (20-1 pot odds), the pot odds are double the hand odds (11-1) and it is worth the risk. It takes a logical, fast thinking person to do all of this on the fly, which is why some of the top poker players in the world are mathematicians and chess players.

The second and third key skills are actually separate skills, but are so closely related, they have to be discussed as one. Reading the player is an observational skill, knowing human behavior is a psychological skill. A poker player must be able to observe the most minute details and relate them to what he/she knows about human nature to interpret what those details mean.

A poker player must be constantly watching all the opponents, looking at their facial expressions, their body language and the pitch of their voice. There are common characteristics that many people portray when they play poker. Many amateur players will act the opposite of what their hands really are. If they have a weak hand, they act strong by staring at their opponents, or pushing out their checks (chips) aggressively. This is an attempt to scare the opponent into thinking they are confident. If they have a strong hand, they act weak, by avoiding eye contact, fidgeting and taking a long time to put their bet in. This is an attempt to make it look like they don't want the player to stay in. Neither ploy will work against a good player, who will see right through the act. These are extreme examples, but there are many other common "tells" that a player can observe and use to evaluate if he/she has that player beat. It is funny to see how many people will behave in a similar way, when put in similar circumstances. A poker player makes use of this knowledge and is always looking for this behavior.

Even clothing and jewelry come into play in these observations. A man dressed in a business suit might be out having a good time on his expense account. Or he might look like a well-off tourist looking to blow some cash. These kinds of people are likely to stay in with bad hands, because the money means little to them. The opposite of that may be a person dressed in cheap clothes, looking like they can't afford to play with the type of money involved in the game. These kinds of people are likely to only stay in with the best cards, because they can't afford to lose much money. The good player needs to know who their opponents are and why they are there. The opponent's motivations for being at that table are just as important as the cards they are holding.

Understanding human nature and how people think is also a skill poker players use in their own behavior. They play off human nature and preconceptions to manipulate what other people think or perceive. They may dress in either of the manners discussed above, to fool the other players into thinking they are something they are not. They might play quick, so other players don't have time to think. They may play slow, to frustrate the other players. They might distract them with mindless chatter unrelated to the game. Everything they do is to keep the other players from noticing what they are really doing, changing the other players perception of what is going on.

The last key skill is just about putting all of the other skills together to get the desired result - winning the money. The good poker player has evaluated the odds of the game, observed the appearance and behavior of their opponents, adjusted their strategy to incorporate all this knowledge and then make a decision. This is constantly happening from the time the player sits down at the table, until the time they leave. There is no single process or method, but a collection of skills used to come to a desired outcome.

In comparison, a cold reader is using the same skills: observing the subject, reading the subject, understanding human nature and the odds of common experiences and making predictions (statements) based on those. They then observe the reactions, understand the human nature of those reactions, evaluate what they have learned from the response, recalculate the odds of their next response and make another prediction. They also use tactics to distract the person, to keep them from thinking about what they are really doing, which changes their perception on what is actually happening. This also takes a fast thinking person.

And the strongest comparison between a poker player and a fraudulent cold reader? Both of their desired outcomes are the same - to win the money.