SkepticReport * Sylvia Browne: Failed Prophet in 1998

April, 2003
This page comments on any and all prophesies made by Browne concerning the year 1998. Originally, my only source for these predictions are indirect sources: this website and this website. Browne has removed all links to these predictions from her own site; I have since been directed to this page at sylvia.org, and the wording below has been quoted from there.

Brian Hudson's "Sylvia Browne: False Prophet?" website

The Predictions of 1998

Prediction Status Comments

"The media overhypes El Niño. It will not cause as much havoc as predicted by weather watchers. There will be flooding in the Midwest and Southern states, the other states will find it unusually dry and humid." UNDETERMINED

"The warming trend continues along with higher humidity, causing molds to grow, making allergies rise to an all-time-high." UNDETERMINED This isn't the first time Browne has made vague predictions about climactic trends that either a) cannot be measured in a single year or b) are a given even before the year begins. But she doesn't make a definite statement here--about molds and record-high allergies. I will look into this one before declaring it yet another "INDETERMINABLE" prediction.

"The landmass of the North East Coast will exhibit obvious erosion. The West Coast will find that more land is appearing." INDETERMINABLE Landmasses are always experiencing cycles of erosion and volcanic upheaval. About the only limb Browne goes out on here is with the word "obvious," but that still doesn't turn this into a psychic prediction.

"The Pacific Northwest, near Seattle, will have an earthquake, around 5.4, in January." FALSE: No 5.4 earthquake occurred in or near Seattle in January. According to The Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network , no notable earthquakes rocked the Pacific Northwest at all in the first months of 1998.

"Small earthquakes in central California, near Modesto, in February." TRUE, but inconsequential. California is an area of great seismic activity. It is absolutely common for an organization like the SCEDC to record upwards of a thousand "small" seismic events in a month. This isn't a prediction; this is a given.

"A very large earthquake in Madrid, about 7.8, in May." FALSE: No such quake occurred. A simple search of CNN.com, Yahoo! News, and Google was all that was needed to falsify this prediction.

"Volcanic eruption in Japan causes a poisonous cloud mass, around April." FALSE: No major eruptions, and no poisonous cloud, menaced Japan around April 1998. Here is the National Hurricane Center's 1998 tracking chart for the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific . Far from being "battered," neither Southern California nor Mexico saw a hurricane-force storm reach its shores in 1998.

"The non-stop destruction of the rain forests will release more and more harmful diseases into our atmosphere. The Earth is trying to survive the plague called man." FALSE: The statement is not scientifically tenable. I have yet to find any study linking rainforest destruction with the emergence of harmful diseases. This is a pseudoscientific statement with, so far as I can tell, little real-world bearing.

"The world will not come to an end in '98, '99, or 2000. As Jesus told us - no one can predict the end times. Ignore the "doomsday prophets" who will rise up like weeds in the next few years. Besides, the "end of the world" simply means we all go back home, we are reunited with all of our loved ones, and we get to have a great time with God and each other forever. What's so bad about that? But having said that, I really cannot see anything beyond the year 2100." INDETERMINABLE She was right about one thing, at least--the world didn't end in 1998, 1999, and 2000. As for the rest of this "prediction," which reads more like a Chicken Soup for the Soul book, there's really no way to verify it. Interestingly, Browne's vision has since cleared, and she has made predictions for the next 100 years.

"Microsoft gets fined more and more money due to monopolistic practices." FALSE: It was not until 2000 that Microsoft began facing major charges and fines for its monopolistic practices.. Me thinks Browne is a Mac user ...

"The US re-takes the lead in technology and becomes the world leader for product innovation." UNDETERMINED

"IBM creates a surprisingly good talk-savvy computer." FALSE: IBM did not design such a system in 1998. "Talk-savvy" computers are still rough, experimental machines, and IBM has never been at the forefront of voice-recognition technology.

"The stock market will continue its 'roller coaster' behavior for the remainder of 1997. By early 1998 it will stabilize and begin a slow recovery, but then again in March of 1998 it will dip." UNDETERMINED

"Bill Clinton will be exonerated in the Paula Jones case. It will be uncovered that this was more like a conspiracy to corrupt his reputation." FALSE: Clinton was never exonerated. As CSICOP notes, "Jones got a big settlement, and it was Clinton's deposition in the Jones case that let to the impeachment effort" in 1998.

"The "White Water" investigation just sinks. Nothing becomes of it." INDETERMINABLE Only history will ultimately decide what effects, if any, Whitewater had on the Clinton Presidency. Certainly, it did not go away before the end of his time in the White House.

"The IRS gets a more thorough investigation by the Justice Department. This becomes the first step toward a Flat Tax code." FALSE: No such investigation ever began, nor has any such investigation ever led to a flat tax code. This seems to be one of those political sticking points for Browne. She "predicted" a push towards a flat tax for 2000, too, but the issue never comes to fruition.

"More Militia groups, in North Dakota and Wyoming, come forward around June with grievances and form "stand offs" with the government." FALSE: No such groups initiated stand-offs with the government in or around June 1998. A search of several major news sources, both national and local/state, failed to turn up any incidences of militia stand-offs. Particularly in the wake of Ruby Ridge and Waco, such stand-offs would have made the news had they occurred.

"We will have brief skirmishes with Iraq, but full war is avoided." UNDETERMINED

"The Democrats will gain power again. Bill Clinton will again run for national office after a four-year break, and win." FALSE: The Dems did not gain power again in 1998. Indeed, the Dems seemed to lose power in 1998, with President Clinton's impeachment. As for the second half of this prediction, see the General Predictions page, as it really has nothing to do with 1998.

"Bill Clinton releases more funding for research into cancer, AIDS, and other health issues." UNDETERMINED This is probably a "gimme" prediction, but I have yet to research the numbers.

"A big resurgence in Holistic and alternative medicine. At the same time people must be wary of scams and false promises." UNDETERMINED

"Surgeons will find that some tumors are easily destroyed without invasive surgery using electrical discharge and laser light." UNDETERMINED

"Hormonal therapy will be refined to create a new type of youth rejuvenator." FALSE: No such techniques were refined in 1998. It's 2003, and we still do not have such procedures.

"Continued research in diabetes and muscular dystrophy brings significant breakthroughs." UNDETERMINED

"The "triple cocktail" used to treat AIDS will have a fourth ingredient added to put AIDS in full remission." FALSE: No such treatment was developed in 1998. It's 2003, and we still have no cure for AIDS.

"More people will go to Europe for medical treatment until the AMA practices and procedures get better." UNDETERMINED

"The Catholic Church will have only one more Pope after John Paul II." UNDETERMINED While made in 1998, this is not a 1998 prediction. John Paul II is still reigning Pope, and so it may be many years before Browne is proven right or wrong here.

"Louis Farrakhan will direct more marches in the US, but he will move to the Middle East to live." UNDETERMINED

"The Spiritual Movement, dormant for seven thousand years, comes to the foreground again." FALSE: No group with the formal name "The Spiritual Movement" emerged in 1998. I have yet to even verify the existence of such a group, even in the "background."

"We will begin to see more TV programming and other media showing a renewed Spirituality rather than religious dogma." FALSE: No such resurgence began in 1998. A survey of current and recent television fare reveals that a number of shows of the past few years--Touched by an Angel, 7th Heaven, Promised Land--actually rely on religious dogma for their central themes, while very few shows, with the possible exception of Crossing Over with John Edward, draw on notions of "Spirituality."

"Protests arise on college campuses regarding the possible war in the Middle East." UNDETERMINED

"The 'TV Evangelists' get another round of bad publicity and exposure showing that they do not need all the money they solicit." UNDETERMINED

"Our economy is better than it has been in the last 40 years and keeps getting better." TRUE: The economy did indeed improve in 1998, as tech stocks enjoyed their heyday. Unimpressive, as cycles of economic prosperity and decline are so common that economists predict them all the time.

"The Christian Coalition proves it is neither. The general public becomes tired of their judgment and condemnation." INDETERMINABLE This is more a statement of opinion than a prediction. Some have felt the Christian Coalition has acted as neither for many years now, while others back the group to this day. 1998 was no different.

TOTAL

True False Indeterminable

Predictions 2 15 4

Accuracy rating so far: 2 out of 35, or about 6%.

Accuracy rating, verified*: 2 out of 17, or about 12%.

* "Verified" indicates a count of predictions which have verifiably been determined TRUE or FALSE. Predictions marked UNDETERMINED or INDETERMINABLE do not count for this calculation.

Prediction	Status	Comments
"The media overhypes El Niño. It will not cause as much havoc as predicted by weather watchers. There will be flooding in the Midwest and Southern states, the other states will find it unusually dry and humid."	UNDETERMINED
"The warming trend continues along with higher humidity, causing molds to grow, making allergies rise to an all-time-high."	UNDETERMINED	This isn't the first time Browne has made vague predictions about climactic trends that either a) cannot be measured in a single year or b) are a given even before the year begins. But she doesn't make a definite statement here--about molds and record-high allergies. I will look into this one before declaring it yet another "INDETERMINABLE" prediction.
"The landmass of the North East Coast will exhibit obvious erosion. The West Coast will find that more land is appearing."	INDETERMINABLE	Landmasses are always experiencing cycles of erosion and volcanic upheaval. About the only limb Browne goes out on here is with the word "obvious," but that still doesn't turn this into a psychic prediction.
"The Pacific Northwest, near Seattle, will have an earthquake, around 5.4, in January."	FALSE: No 5.4 earthquake occurred in or near Seattle in January.	According to The Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network , no notable earthquakes rocked the Pacific Northwest at all in the first months of 1998.
"Small earthquakes in central California, near Modesto, in February."	TRUE, but inconsequential.	California is an area of great seismic activity. It is absolutely common for an organization like the SCEDC to record upwards of a thousand "small" seismic events in a month. This isn't a prediction; this is a given.
"A very large earthquake in Madrid, about 7.8, in May."	FALSE: No such quake occurred.	A simple search of CNN.com, Yahoo! News, and Google was all that was needed to falsify this prediction.
"Volcanic eruption in Japan causes a poisonous cloud mass, around April."	FALSE: No major eruptions, and no poisonous cloud, menaced Japan around April 1998.	Here is the National Hurricane Center's 1998 tracking chart for the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific . Far from being "battered," neither Southern California nor Mexico saw a hurricane-force storm reach its shores in 1998.
"The non-stop destruction of the rain forests will release more and more harmful diseases into our atmosphere. The Earth is trying to survive the plague called man."	FALSE: The statement is not scientifically tenable.	I have yet to find any study linking rainforest destruction with the emergence of harmful diseases. This is a pseudoscientific statement with, so far as I can tell, little real-world bearing.
"The world will not come to an end in '98, '99, or 2000. As Jesus told us - no one can predict the end times. Ignore the "doomsday prophets" who will rise up like weeds in the next few years. Besides, the "end of the world" simply means we all go back home, we are reunited with all of our loved ones, and we get to have a great time with God and each other forever. What's so bad about that? But having said that, I really cannot see anything beyond the year 2100."	INDETERMINABLE	She was right about one thing, at least--the world didn't end in 1998, 1999, and 2000. As for the rest of this "prediction," which reads more like a Chicken Soup for the Soul book, there's really no way to verify it. Interestingly, Browne's vision has since cleared, and she has made predictions for the next 100 years.
"Microsoft gets fined more and more money due to monopolistic practices."	FALSE: It was not until 2000 that Microsoft began facing major charges and fines for its monopolistic practices..	Me thinks Browne is a Mac user ...
"The US re-takes the lead in technology and becomes the world leader for product innovation."	UNDETERMINED
"IBM creates a surprisingly good talk-savvy computer."	FALSE: IBM did not design such a system in 1998.	"Talk-savvy" computers are still rough, experimental machines, and IBM has never been at the forefront of voice-recognition technology.
"The stock market will continue its 'roller coaster' behavior for the remainder of 1997. By early 1998 it will stabilize and begin a slow recovery, but then again in March of 1998 it will dip."	UNDETERMINED
"Bill Clinton will be exonerated in the Paula Jones case. It will be uncovered that this was more like a conspiracy to corrupt his reputation."	FALSE: Clinton was never exonerated.	As CSICOP notes, "Jones got a big settlement, and it was Clinton's deposition in the Jones case that let to the impeachment effort" in 1998.
"The "White Water" investigation just sinks. Nothing becomes of it."	INDETERMINABLE	Only history will ultimately decide what effects, if any, Whitewater had on the Clinton Presidency. Certainly, it did not go away before the end of his time in the White House.
"The IRS gets a more thorough investigation by the Justice Department. This becomes the first step toward a Flat Tax code."	FALSE: No such investigation ever began, nor has any such investigation ever led to a flat tax code.	This seems to be one of those political sticking points for Browne. She "predicted" a push towards a flat tax for 2000, too, but the issue never comes to fruition.
"More Militia groups, in North Dakota and Wyoming, come forward around June with grievances and form "stand offs" with the government."	FALSE: No such groups initiated stand-offs with the government in or around June 1998.	A search of several major news sources, both national and local/state, failed to turn up any incidences of militia stand-offs. Particularly in the wake of Ruby Ridge and Waco, such stand-offs would have made the news had they occurred.
"We will have brief skirmishes with Iraq, but full war is avoided."	UNDETERMINED
"The Democrats will gain power again. Bill Clinton will again run for national office after a four-year break, and win."	FALSE: The Dems did not gain power again in 1998.	Indeed, the Dems seemed to lose power in 1998, with President Clinton's impeachment. As for the second half of this prediction, see the General Predictions page, as it really has nothing to do with 1998.
"Bill Clinton releases more funding for research into cancer, AIDS, and other health issues."	UNDETERMINED	This is probably a "gimme" prediction, but I have yet to research the numbers.
"A big resurgence in Holistic and alternative medicine. At the same time people must be wary of scams and false promises."	UNDETERMINED
"Surgeons will find that some tumors are easily destroyed without invasive surgery using electrical discharge and laser light."	UNDETERMINED
"Hormonal therapy will be refined to create a new type of youth rejuvenator."	FALSE: No such techniques were refined in 1998.	It's 2003, and we still do not have such procedures.
"Continued research in diabetes and muscular dystrophy brings significant breakthroughs."	UNDETERMINED
"The "triple cocktail" used to treat AIDS will have a fourth ingredient added to put AIDS in full remission."	FALSE: No such treatment was developed in 1998.	It's 2003, and we still have no cure for AIDS.
"More people will go to Europe for medical treatment until the AMA practices and procedures get better."	UNDETERMINED
"The Catholic Church will have only one more Pope after John Paul II."	UNDETERMINED	While made in 1998, this is not a 1998 prediction. John Paul II is still reigning Pope, and so it may be many years before Browne is proven right or wrong here.
"Louis Farrakhan will direct more marches in the US, but he will move to the Middle East to live."	UNDETERMINED
"The Spiritual Movement, dormant for seven thousand years, comes to the foreground again."	FALSE: No group with the formal name "The Spiritual Movement" emerged in 1998.	I have yet to even verify the existence of such a group, even in the "background."
"We will begin to see more TV programming and other media showing a renewed Spirituality rather than religious dogma."	FALSE: No such resurgence began in 1998.	A survey of current and recent television fare reveals that a number of shows of the past few years--Touched by an Angel, 7th Heaven, Promised Land--actually rely on religious dogma for their central themes, while very few shows, with the possible exception of Crossing Over with John Edward, draw on notions of "Spirituality."
"Protests arise on college campuses regarding the possible war in the Middle East."	UNDETERMINED
"The 'TV Evangelists' get another round of bad publicity and exposure showing that they do not need all the money they solicit."	UNDETERMINED
"Our economy is better than it has been in the last 40 years and keeps getting better."	TRUE: The economy did indeed improve in 1998, as tech stocks enjoyed their heyday.	Unimpressive, as cycles of economic prosperity and decline are so common that economists predict them all the time.
"The Christian Coalition proves it is neither. The general public becomes tired of their judgment and condemnation."	INDETERMINABLE	This is more a statement of opinion than a prediction. Some have felt the Christian Coalition has acted as neither for many years now, while others back the group to this day. 1998 was no different.